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The Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) is once again edging toward a fiscal breaking point. Officials in its Erbil-based semi-autonomous regional government (KRG) say they are receiving only a fraction of the budget transfers they are owed under the current oil-for-budget payments arrangement with the Federal Government of Iraq (FGI) in Baghdad. This revives the same dispute that triggered the collapse of the deal in March 2023 and shut down the crucial Iraq-Turkey Pipeline (ITP) for more than two years. Erbil argues that Baghdad’s shortfalls…
On 12 January 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump announced, “Effective immediately, any Country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States of America.” Trump’s announcement aims to weaken the government of the Islamic Republic in the wake of weeks of protests against the government, sparked by a weak economy. Trump told the protesters to keep fighting their government and that “help is on the way.” Who is “doing business”…
This week, Tesla North America and Elon Musk announced that the largest and most advanced lithium refinery in the United States is now operational. The Tesla Lithium Refinery just outside of Corpus Christi, Texas, is another step toward the U.S. goal of having domestic refined lithium resources to counter China’s market dominance. “Our Lithium Refinery ushers in energy independence for North America,” Tesla North America said in the caption of a video announcing that the plant is operational, just two years after breaking ground.…
Crude oil prices are in retreat after rising on the possibility of U.S. strikes on Iran. Before the retreat, however, Brent crude and WTI had jumped to the highest in months, countering bearish forecasts for the year—and tearing traders between geopolitics and fundamentals. In fundamentals, the majority of observers and forecasters are unanimous that the supply of crude oil is substantially higher than demand. In fact, Goldman Sachs recently revised its price predictions for 2026, saying it now expected Brent crude to go even lower after…
In the second installment of a three-part series focused on South American pipeline infrastructure, we head to Brazil. The country faces the challenge of reinforcing its pipeline network to absorb growing pre-salt gas while managing declining imports from Bolivia. Although higher volumes of Argentine gas are expected to reach Brazil via Bolivia over the medium to long term, network upgrades will be required to ensure security of supply during the transition. TAG is the gas transmission operator responsible for the main transport corridor connecting…
Russia’s oil-and-gas budget suffered a painful blow in 2025. Revenues from the sector fell 24% to 8.48 trillion roubles, the weakest showing since 2020. That matters because oil and gas still bankroll roughly a quarter of the federal budget, and that budget is being chewed up by defense and security spending at a pace hard to ignore. This is not because Russia pumped less crude. Oil prices fell more than 18% last year. That is the sharpest annual drop since the pandemic crash. On top of that, the rouble strengthened—bad timing. When…
A race for critical minerals is redefining global geopolitics as world powers rush to shore up supply chains of the finite materials that power the energy and tech sectors. Demand for rare earth metals and other critical minerals has seen a meteoric rise in recent years as the world increasingly electrifies and the tech sector becomes ever more robust and omnipresent. Due to the central role of these ingredients in global and national economies, competition for these supply chains is far more than just a commercial concern – it’s become…
Oil prices haven’t had a breather since the year started as one geopolitical crisis has moved to another. Just a week after the U.S. intervention in Venezuela captured Nicolas Maduro, U.S. President Donald Trump has turned his sights to Iran, threatening a U.S. response to the deadly suppression of mass protests against the Islamic Republic’s regime. Oil settled on Monday at a one-month high amid concerns about a potential supply disruption in the Middle East if Iranian protests further escalate and a U.S. intervention of some kind…
Few debates in Brussels carry as much emotional charge as critical raw materials. Mention lithium, rare earths, graphite, or nickel and the discussion almost immediately turns alarmist. China dominates the supply chain. Europe is dangerously dependent. The energy transition is at risk. The tone often suggests inevitability, as if this imbalance were a law of physics rather than the result of political and industrial choices. Step back from the panic and a different picture emerges. Europe’s vulnerability in critical materials is not geological.…
Traders are betting record amounts of money on China’s metals markets, expecting a continued rally in the prices of base metals and lithium. At the end of 2025 and the start of 2026, speculators held record-high open interest in the base metals copper, zinc, nickel, tin, lead, and aluminum traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and near-record open interest in battery metal lithium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange. Concerns about tightening global metal supply, lower interest rates driving investment in metal commodities, and expectations…
Global economies are increasingly splitting into two opposing camps when it comes to energy policy. While many nations are moving toward electrification and installing record-breaking amounts of clean energy capacity, other nations – most notably the United States, the world’s biggest economy – are installing more fossil fuels than ever before. Put simply, the future of the global energy balance now depends on the results of a high-stakes battle between petro-states and electro-states. The emergence of artificial intelligence…
Even as geopolitical developments, such as Venezuela and Iran, are making headlines, another major energy-related issue is currently being unwound. At present, the fire sale of Russian oil and gas giant Lukoil’s empire is ongoing, in the only way this can be done for a sanctioned Russian major. The whole deal or process is clearly under a clock set by Washington, based, and inside a legal maze designed by OFAC. The most critical part of it all is that potential buyers are forced to demonstrate that they are not merely acquiring assets but…
In 2025, the Middle East solidified its role as the primary stabilizing force in a fragmented global energy system. While international markets faced geopolitical dislocation and divergent transition pathways, the leading Middle Eastern national oil companies (NOCs) adopted a consistent strategy of sustaining hydrocarbon primacy while systematically reducing costs and carbon intensity. More than $100 billion in upstream capital deployment enabled the NOCs to expand crude spare capacity and accelerate gas development, while selective international…
The dramatic events over the weekend in Venezuela have renewed global attention on a country that, on paper, should be one of the world’s great energy powers. Venezuela holds the largest proven oil reserves on Earth, yet its oil industry has been in long-term decline for two decades. Understanding why requires looking past the headlines and into the technical, legal, and political decisions that steadily dismantled what was once a cornerstone of the global petroleum system. The United States confirmed that Venezuelan President Nicolás…
The foreign secretary has signalled the Bank of England will continue to withhold $4.8bn of Venezuelan gold being held in its vaults, despite the dramatic toppling of the country’s autocratic ruler potentially paving the way to the reserves being returned. Addressing lawmakers late on Monday, Yvette Cooper suggested the government would continue its refusal to recognise the new leadership in Caracas, acknowledging this would likely mean the Bank would continue to withhold the country’s reserves. Britain’s central bank has stored…
Will the electric utility distribution monopolies (”discos”) remain financially viable over the longer term? That is the question, and not an idle one. When the government broke up the Bell Systemm (some of you may remember that formerly ubiquitous entity) in the 1980s, it assumed (as did most investors) that the local exchange (the telephone equivalent of the disco) had an unassailable regulated monopoly. Technology (the internet and cell phones) changed that picture, and today only 30% of the population utilizes local exchange…
Singapore is a 277-square-mile thermodynamic miracle, or perhaps a financial one, depending on which ledger you prefer to read. I’ve spent enough time looking at industrial clusters to know that space is the ultimate friction point. In Singapore, that friction is becoming heat. Data from the IEA and regional market trackers reveals a country that has built an empire on "transformation"...taking raw inputs it doesn't own and turning them into high-value outputs the rest of the world craves. It refined 1.7 million terajoules of oil products…
For years, energy experts have predicted that natural gas will be the only fossil fuel that will see significant growth in its share in the global primary energy mix in the coming years, thanks to its role as a "bridge fuel" due to a lower emission profile compared with coal and oil as well as flexibility for grid stability, especially with increasing demand in Asia and as a backup for renewables. Natural gas is poised to reshape Africa’s future, offering transformative pathways for countries to earn export revenues and achieve domestic industrialization.…
The geopolitical landscape of the Western Hemisphere shifted violently Saturday morning. In a nighttime operation that mirrors the 1989 capture of Manuel Noriega, U.S. special operations forces—reportedly including the Army’s Delta Force—struck Caracas and seized Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. President Donald Trump confirmed the capture on social media, describing it as a "large-scale strike" conducted alongside law enforcement. Maduro is currently being flown to the United States…
Nuclear power is currently having its "Silicon Valley" moment. After decades of being treated as a dinosaur technology—too slow, too expensive, and too politically toxic—the industry has pivoted toward something it calls the Small Modular Reactor (SMR). The goal is to stop building energy cathedrals and start building energy appliances. The market fundamentals are finally in place for a new era. Global electricity demand is rising at twice the rate of total energy demand, pushed over the edge by the relentless growth of AI data centers…
South Korea’s move to kill coal will almost certainly have repercussions on two of its largest energy customers, Australia and the United States. A decision on the polluting fossil fuel was made at the COP30 climate conference in Brazil, when South Korea’s Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment announced plans to retire most of the country’s coal-fired power plants by 2040, and to at least halve its carbon emissions by 2035. Forty of the plants already have confirmed closure dates. South Korea has been criticized for not…
Several trends emerged in the energy markets in 2025 and are set to continue shaping the global oil, gas, and energy equities markets into 2026. Sure, there will be many wild cards in 2026, especially concerning geopolitics and tensions flaring up from the Caribbean to Yemen. These, while impossible to predict, will also impact global energy markets and investor sentiment. Of those trends that can be predicted, supply-demand balances in the oil and gas markets, and the challenges and opportunities facing Big Oil and other oil and gas firms,…
Rare earth elements (REEs) are the backbone of modern technology, from EV motors and wind turbines to smartphones and precision-guided systems. This map, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, breaks down where the world’s known rare earth reserves are located in 2025, highlighting how concentrated they are across a handful of countries. The data for this visualization comes from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The distribution is highly uneven. China alone holds nearly half of the global total, followed by Brazil’s…
We are seeing a violent collision between two worlds: the high-speed, iterative world of artificial intelligence and the slow, grinding, capital-intensive world of nuclear physics. Data from a survey of over 600 global investors reveals that 63% now view AI electricity demand as a "structural" shift in nuclear planning. This isn't a temporary spike or a speculative bubble. It is the physical footprint of every Large Language Model (LLM) query finally showing up on the global balance sheet. For years, the energy narrative was dominated by…
